It has been reported today that the North Koreans have completed fueling of a Taepodong-2 missile, which has a range of up to 3700 miles-placing the United States within striking distance. Although North Korea has not announced immediate intentions to test-fire this new weapon, the implication is certainly there. Which makes a lot of people nervous. The Japanese, in particular, have some cause for concern: in 1998 (coincidentally, the last time North Korea test-fired a long range missile), a Taepodong-1 was fired over northern Japan. If something like that happens again, the Japanese aren't inclined to take it lightly. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi promised "stern actions" if the test were to take place. More telling is his government's policy should the launch happen-if any piece of the missle falls on Japanese soil, it will be interpreted as an attack. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice today stated that it would be a "provocative act" on the part of Pyongyang.
With all that being said, my money is on a test launch happening sometime within the next few weeks. Why, you may ask? Kim Jong-Il is insane. And not in a "crazy uncle" sort of way. More of a "paranoid sociopath" sort of way. Let's look at his track record so far. He assumed power in 1994 following the death of his dictator father, Kim Il-Sung. In the time period from 1994 to 1998, North Korea experienced one of the worst famines in recent history. The actual number of deaths attributable to the famine are hard to pin down, but various estimates place them between two and three million. During that time, instead of asking the international community for help, Kim Jong-Il was content to let that many of his own people die. Everyday life there is no better. There is nothing we would associate with freedom present. All aspects of life are government-controlled. People are routinely executed for things such as "ideological divergence," according to this State Department report. Citizens also have a tendency to disappear, often finding themselves in a secret labor camp. Stop me if you've heard this before. Remind anyone else of Russia under Stalin, complete with gulags? To call Kim Jong-Il dangerous is an understatement.
The facts are the facts. He has defied the international community before. He's bought into his own cult of personality and fancies himself infallible. Everything points to this launch taking place. If that missile is test-fired, the international community must come down hard and fast. No weeks of debate by the U.N. Security Council. No strongly worded resolutions. No sanctions. Action. Kim Jong-Il with missiles that can reach the United States is far more pressing than Saddam and his conspicuously absent WMDs. I can only hope I'm wrong, and that Kim Jong-Il can see the handwriting on the wall.
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